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Post by Enrique on May 31, 2008 18:46:14 GMT -5
It's that time once again, folks. Hurricane season has arrived. It has even come early, TS Arthur is already here. No threat to the US; however, it's bringing some rain to the Yucatan; maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
Dr. William Gray's forecast for 2008 as of April 9th:
15 named storms
8 hurricanes
4 intense/major hurricanes (Cat. 3 and higher)
It's supposed to be an above average year in intensity for the Atlantic basin.
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Post by Yoshi on Jun 3, 2008 14:10:20 GMT -5
Nothing can threaten America; the Aircraft Carrier John F. Kennedy can launch 80 planes and single-handedly defeat most nations on earth.
Can you tell us how you figure out whether it's going to be a "more intense" or "less intense" year for these things?
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Post by emvee on Jun 3, 2008 21:21:16 GMT -5
Nothing can threaten America; the Aircraft Carrier John F. Kennedy can launch 80 planes and single-handedly defeat most nations on earth. Can you tell us how you figure out whether it's going to be a "more intense" or "less intense" year for these things? I agree with this man. **** YEAH SEAPLANES! |
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Post by Enrique on Jun 4, 2008 6:14:04 GMT -5
Nothing can threaten America; the Aircraft Carrier John F. Kennedy can launch 80 planes and single-handedly defeat most nations on earth. Can you tell us how you figure out whether it's going to be a "more intense" or "less intense" year for these things? The first major indicator that the 2008 season is predicted to be above normal in intensity is the amount of storms predicted. Consider Dr. Gray's forecast that I already posted, and compare that to the climatology of the basin: 9.6 named storms 5.9 hurricanes 2.3 intense hurricanes I don't know what the standard deviation for all of these statistics are, but it is still safe to assume that what Dr. Gray is forecasting for this year is considerably - and significantly - higher than average. Then there's another statistic called Accumulated Cyclone Energy. This is the sum of a named storm's (or hurricane season's) maximum kinetic energy per six-hour interval. Dr. Gray predicts 150; climatology is 96. A "hyperactive" season is considered to be a season with ACE of more than roughly 150. |
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Post by Lich Yoshi von Kippo on Jul 3, 2008 10:10:33 GMT -5
Any idea about the 2009 season? Since I'll be over there and all then...
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